The far leg is priced with Black-Scholes assuming your IV holds at the near expiration. Profit and breakeven move with IV; net debit and max loss are exact.
At this IV the debit is larger than the far leg's remaining value at the short strike — the trade has no profitable zone. Lower the debit or raise the IV assumption.
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Best guess — modeled at the near expiration, valuing the longer-dated leg with Black-Scholes and assuming the implied volatility above holds. A two-expiration estimate, not a prediction; it ignores volatility skew, early assignment and dividends. Real outcomes will differ.
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